The DOGE sent me an email demanding a list of what I have been doing with my time. I have to reply or be chain-sawed. So, here is this year’s Oscars fearless forecast. Hopefully, I’d get a DOGE dividend!
Best picture: Anora; The Brutalist; A Complete Unknown; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; I'm Still Here; Nickel Boys; The Substance; Wicked
Anora is the crowd pleaser, a sure bet. But theme-wise, Conclave is the safe choice. And would be a reality if the current Pope dies. The Brutalist is raw concrete architecture that practically applies to the film. A Complete Unknown is the emergence of Bob Dylan and his break from folk music when he goes electric. Emilia Perez is a cartel boss who disappears, transgenders, and reconnects with his family bringing back death and destruction; and surprise: it’s a musical! I’m still Here, a Brazilian entry about a mother/wife struggling to keep her family together while coping with the disappearance of her dissident husband, is best suited for the International Oscar win. Nickel Boys—I did not see. Same for The Substance which from I’ve seen in clips, is more a scream movie than anything. Wicked, too long, and it’s just Part 1; so popular it got annoying. Its box office gross is award enough.
I’d go with Conclave.
Director: Anora, Sean Baker; The Brutalist, Brady Corbet; A Complete Unknown, James Mangold; Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard; The Substance, Coralie Fargeat
Sean Baker. He won the DGA. He’d also win for Original Screenplay.
Lead actress: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance; Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here.
This category gets crazy. It’s what votes want despite the demerits. They feel it’s time for Demi Moore to get an Oscar. So be it.
Second bet: Mikey Madison. Should win: Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here.
Karla Sofia Gascon had a good chance but blew it up with that social media scandal.
Supporting actress: Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Zoe has this in the bag. But I loved Monica as Joan Baez. Felicity Jones was too uppity as the role requires, but it was off putting. Ariana can sing and act, but people still think of her as just a singer. Isabella, not exactly her mother, and her role too short and not that dramatic.
Lead Actor: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave; Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice.
Brody is a brooding, fictional architect who comes to America, tries to assimilate but remains true to his dream of building an architectural masterpiece. He already won this. Chalamet plays the real-life Bob Dylan. He acts, and he sings and is great in both.
I’d go with Chalamet. New and exciting over the staid old winner.
Supporting actor: Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Culkin has this though I liked Guy Pearce in The Brutalist. Ed Norton, not so noticeable. I would have preferred Denzel in Gladiator II, but the Academy thumbed him down.
Original Screenplay: Anora, Sean Baker; The Brutalist, Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold; A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg; September 5, Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Alex David; The Substance, Coralie Fargeat
Anora.
Adapted Screenplay: A Complete Unknown, James Mangold and Jay Cocks; Conclave, Peter Straughan; Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard; Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi; Nickel Boys, RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes; Sing Sing, Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield.
Conclave.
International feature film: I'm Still Here, Brazil; The Girl with the Needle, Denmark; Emilia Pérez, France; The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Germany; Flow, Latvia
Brazil: I’m Still Here. Second bet: France: Emilia Perez.
Cinematography: The Brutalist; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; Maria; Nosferatu
Would win: Lol Crawley, The Brutalist. Should win: Edward Lachman, Maria.
Visual effects: Alien: Romulus; Better Man; Dune: Part Two; Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes; Wicked
Dune, Part Two—all those SFX on Paul riding the sandworm with sand blowing all over.
Second bet: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. They’re beginning to look and act human.
Costume design: A Complete Unknown; Conclave; Gladiator II; Nosferatu; Wicked.
Should and would win: Wicked
Documentary feature: Black Box Diaries; No Other Land; Porcelain War; Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat; Sugarcane
No Other Land—destruction of Masafer Yatta in the Occupied West Bank
Second bet: Porcelain War—artists who stay behind in Ukraine defend their culture and country.
Documentary short: Death by Numbers; I Am Ready, Warden; Incident; Instruments of a Beating Heart; The Only Girl in the Orchestra
I Am Ready, Warden—a Texas man on death row.
Second bet: Death By Numbers—Survivor of the Parkland School shooting
Film editing: Anora, Sean Baker; The Brutalist, David Jancso; Conclave, Nick Emerson; Emilia Pérez, Juliette Welfling; Wicked, Myron Kerstein
Conclave—sharp cutting in the confined spaces of the Sistine Chapel and the protagonists in the conclave.
Second bet—The Brutalist. Long shots and sharp cuts show the conflict between architect’s personal trauma and the geometric precision of the brutalist styled edifice he was creating. Actually, it should have been cut more. Too long at 215 minutes despite the intermission.
Makeup and hairstyling: A Different Man; Emilia Pérez; Nosferatu; The Substance; Wicked
The Substance—toxic beauty culture creates Gollum and Monstro in a prosthetic mashup.
Second bet: Wicked—not easy being green, or makeup and hair that can defy gravity.
Original Score: The Brutalist; Conclave; Emilia Pérez; Wicked: The Wild Robot Bowers.
Brutalist—sonic slabs build up with the Brutalist designed edifice
Second bet: Conclave—sacred pieces mix in with tension building tones.
Original Song: "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez; "The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight; "Like A Bird" from Sing Sing; "Mi Camino" from Emilia Pérez; "Never Too Late" from Elton John: Never Too Late.
El Mal—it so complements Zoe Saldana’s character and would ride on her win.
Second bet—The Journey from The Six Triple Eight. Dianne Warren’s 16th nomination. She got an honorary Oscar, but an organic win would be great. This Tyler Perry movie about an all-black women’s corps in the US Army ranked high in Netflix, increasing its chance to win.
Production design: The Brutalist; Conclave; Dune: Part Two; Nosferatu; Wicked
Wicked—we get to see Oz!
Second bet: Brutalist--a more grounded architectural film
Live action short film: A Lien; Anuja; I'm Not a Robot; The Last Ranger; The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent.
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent—a reminder of a past foreign tragedy from Croatia about the Bosnia and Herzegovina genocide. Won the Cannes and European film awards.
Second bet: A Lien—a U.S. immigration nightmare of validating a spouse’s status and being ambushed by ICE, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Hits hard with present day realities.
Sound: A Complete Unknown; Dune: Part Two; Emilia Pérez; Wicked; The Wild Robot
Dune, Part Two. Dune, Part One won this last time around. Part Two has more nuanced sound from the gladiator fights to the fast-moving sandworms
Second bet: Wicked, the Defying Gravity climax alone should clinch this. But voters may think it’s too popular.
Animated feature film: Flow; Inside Out 2; Memoir of a Snail; Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl; The Wild Robot
Winner: Wild Robot. Second bet: Flow
Animated short film: Beautiful Men ;In the Shadow of the Cypress; Magic Candies; Wander to Wonder; Yuck!
Winner: Beautiful Men. Second bet: Wander to Wonder.
That’s it. Thank You and Good Night!
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Guest Contributor
Vidor Nosce
Vidor describes himself as a Filipino 'transplant' working as a tax research attorney in the US. He is an art, architecture and film enthusiast.
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